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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/29 10:58

   Corn Futures are Mixed at Midday; Soybeans Higher; Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 4 to 
7 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday Thursday; soybean futures are 4 to 
7 cents higher; wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is 
weaker with the DOW off 440 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points lower. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude up .20. 
Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals are mixed with gold down 4.00.


   Corn futures are narrowly mixed at midday with trade continuing to soften 
ahead of the stocks report Friday. Harvest pressure continues to expand, and 
outside markets continue to raise demand questions. The stocks report is 
expected to show 1.512 billion bushels (bb) of corn on hand. Short-term 
forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal temps over 
the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. The export wire will 
need to show more life soon with nothing to start the week and sliding world 
freight values. Weekly export sales still tepid at 512,000 metric tons (mt) for 
this crop year and 160,000 mt for new. Ethanol margins will likely chop along 
with softer driving demand. The weekly report showed production down 46,000 
barrels per day (bpd); stocks 190,000 barrels higher. Basis will be watched to 
see how quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the 
west will bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable 
strength already while intra-month spreads soften short term. On the December 
chart, trade is just below the 20-day moving average at $6.77 with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $6.57 as support.


   Soybean futures are 4 to 7 cents higher at midday with softer spread action 
as trade backs off the overnight highs with harvest pressure and outside market 
influences still limiting upside short term. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower, and 
oil is 115 to 125 points higher. The stocks report is expected to show 242 
million bushels (mb) on hand as of Sept. 1. South America has early planting 
underway with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The 
dollar reversal from Wednesday needs to hold with Brazil in better shape than 
Argentina early on, although Argentina has aggressively moved last year's 
soybeans in recent days, but that should be wrapped up by the end of this week. 
Basis will continue to shift toward harvest footing with trade watching to see 
how quickly export shipments pick up into the end of the month with some 
further near-term basis pressure expected into October along with intramonth 
spread weakness. The daily wire has been quiet recently, increasing the demand 
concerns with weekly sales showing improvement at 1.0 million metric tons (mmt) 
for this crop year and -30,000 for next; meal sales at 86,300 of old and 
150,200 of new; and oil at -5,000 old and 700 of new. On the November soybean 
chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.32 as resistance, with the 
lower Bollinger band at $13.68 as support.


   Wheat futures are 2 to 5 cents lower with trade continuing to consolidate in 
the upper end of the range after testing the recent highs again with trade 
backing off the highs with little fresh bullish news pre-report. Wheat stocks 
are expected to be at 1.776 bb Friday. The Plains look dry short term, but 
enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward with 
spring harvest likely wrapped up. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the 
range with some light buying Thursday and little fresh news on the grain 
shipment front. Weekly export sales were range bound at 279,800 mt for this 
year, and -29,700 mt for next year. The KC December chart has support at the 
20-day moving average of $9.31 and the Upper Bollinger band at $9.97 as 

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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